Hooniverse Asks: What Overvalued Collector Car is Ready To Crash in Value?

911 beauty
Good news people, according to the knowledgeable folks at Hagerty Porsche values may be plateauing, meaning that the era of $25K 924s with cracked dashboards may likely not, in fact, be nigh.
The prices of desirable cars of pretty much every ilk have been rising over the past five years or so, to the point where unless you’ve already got one, the chances of us average car enthusiasts getting one in the garage is going to be pretty slim. It appears that the classic car market is in a bubble
Ah, but there are rumblings of that bubble popping and certain car values crashing. No, we won’t see Steve McQueen’s Lusso for sale on Craigslist any time soon, but there will likely be a number of marques that cold become once again affordable. Which of those do you think is overdue for a big drop?
Image: Rennlist

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55 responses to “Hooniverse Asks: What Overvalued Collector Car is Ready To Crash in Value?”

  1. BigRedCaveTroll Avatar
    BigRedCaveTroll

    Maybe it’s because of my location, but 1st gen Camaros don’t seem as expensive as they were.

  2. Maymar Avatar
    Maymar

    Basically, anything that would have stood out in American Graffiti. Anyone who remembers where they were in ’62 is at retirement age today, and are leaving their peak spending days behind. It won’t be a bubble burst necessarily, but they won’t keep fetching the peak Barrett-Jackson money they used to.

    1. P161911 Avatar
      P161911

      Yes and no, I see your point, but children of the 1980s won’t be rushing out to get K-cars and stock 4-eyed Mustang GTs anytime soon.

      1. Alff Avatar
        Alff

        There is a lot of 4-eyed pride.

        1. P161911 Avatar
          P161911

          How many of those with 4-eyed pride keep the stock 135HP V-8? Notice I said stock. Show me a non-modified restored 4-eyed Mustang.

      2. Maymar Avatar
        Maymar

        For sure, but that’s a matter of desirability. We’re absolutely seeing a rise in values on Euro stuff from the 80s (like the aforementioned Porsches, or E30 M3s that are already bringing stupid money), and Japanese sports cars/sport compacts are getting there too.
        By a similar conceit, a ’58 Rambler isn’t worth obscene money, but that doesn’t reflect on a C1 Corvette.

      3. crank_case Avatar
        crank_case

        Nope, they’ll be snapping up E30s.

  3. engineerd Avatar
    engineerd

    Now that the older ones are starting to hit 25 making importation easier, the LR Defender bubble in the US will [hopefully] burst. I hope. I really hope.

    1. Maymar Avatar
      Maymar

      I upvote you on principle, but things aren’t much better just south of you (in Canada) with the 15 year importation.
      The logical answer is for you to build a stretch Lada Niva.

      1. engineerd Avatar
        engineerd

        Lada Niva Troopy!

    2. texpat Avatar
      texpat

      This’ll make you cry, but my restored very very stock 73 SWB Landrover pickup/hardtop cost me $3k GBP (Call it $5k us), ran near flawlessly for a year, then I sold for the exact same money. Lovely tartan seat squabs, wooden steering wheel. Brilliant vehicle. This was in the early 90’s.

      1. engineerd Avatar
        engineerd

        Yeah, whenever I go to Germany for work I look in the local ads for Defenders. I’ve seen them half of what a comparable Defender would be in the US. It’s absurd.

  4. Guest Avatar
    Guest

    Prewar stuff.

    Very few people remember when they were even on the used market, so there is very little nostalgia associated with them. Couple with the fact that most of them are virtually un-driveable on today’s, and you’ll get the sad situation of nice, restored 1920’s/1930’s cars becoming hot rods due to lower prices.

    On the bright side, this means I might be able to buy a Cord L29 or 810/812. I really want a Cord.

    1. P161911 Avatar
      P161911

      Model Ts and Model As might get really cheap, but Cords and the like will probably be seen more as art.

      1. Tomsk Avatar
        Tomsk

        Stock Ts and As are already rather cheap, presumably because 1) Ford made so freakin’ many of them that there are quite a few left relative to other cars from those eras, and 2) the number of people who grew up with them is shrinking daily.

        1. Sjalabais Avatar
          Sjalabais

          I have an A on my bucket list. Just listening to Youtube videos of guys tearing up (sort of) forest roads in these…wonderful. The engine sound and mechanical background of every move you make is something to behold.
          That said…that bucket list. A remote concept. It would also hurt my understanding of how and why one preserves industrial heritage like cars if vehicles that have been conserved for generations end up as hot rods. That Crapshoot win stored since 1959…ok. You don’t take a pristine classic of the road then. But cars that have been kept in original shape, consuming lots of love and money for decade after decade…a shame to change course.

        2. mdharrell Avatar

          I’m still waiting for the right Ford TT to come along at the right price, preferably with a fully-enclosed wooden cab and Rocky Mountain brakes.

        3. P161911 Avatar
          P161911

          I sort of want a Model A. It is probably the oldest car that is possible to drive on a regular basis. I could hop in a Model A and with a minute or two of instruction drive it. If I tried to drive a Model T without lots of instruction and practice I would fail and look like a spastic monkey in the process.

        4. Rover 1 Avatar
          Rover 1

          And the number of people that actually know how to drive a Model T is shrinking.
          A standardised control layout is much under-rated.

    2. kogashiwa Avatar
      kogashiwa

      I hope you’re right cos I’m holding out for a Stutz Bearcat as soon as they drop below $5k.

      1. Guest Avatar
        Guest

        Oh yes, a pre-war Bearcat would be impractical and amazing.

        A post-war Bearcat? Still impractical, but a lot less amazing.

        https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f1/Stutz_bearcat_1.jpg

    3. crank_case Avatar
      crank_case

      I think that’s already happened, but these things are still in the high end collector market, less expensive relatively speaking, but still expensive, especially for stuff that as you say, takes a lot of dedication to own

    4. sporty88 Avatar
      sporty88

      “….. you’ll get the sad situation of nice, restored 1920’s/1930’s cars becoming hot rods …..”
      Already happening. A year or two ago, one of the major hot rodding magazines ran a series of articles (over the course of 2-3 issues) about one – they took a nice restored A model coupe and transferred the body across to an aftermarket rolling frame.

      1. Guest Avatar
        Guest

        I remember that article. Wasn’t that in Street Rodder?

        Anyway, that one isn’t even the worst offender. The high profile of it hurt, but at least they kept the body reasonably stock.

        The worst one I saw was when I flipping channels on the tube, and came across a shop taking an older restored Model A, and turning it into a “rat-rod” with a diesel engine and fake “patina”…

        Blech…

        1. sporty88 Avatar
          sporty88

          Yes, I think it was Street Rodder.
          Thankfully, I missed the TV show you mentioned.

  5. acarr260 Avatar
    acarr260

    Chevelles seem to have become much more reasonable lately. Cars that were bringing rare Mopar money about ten years ago are now trading in the $25-50k range.

  6. Alff Avatar
    Alff

    What I would call second tier Chevrolets of the sixties – full size, Chevy II/Nova, Corvair have enjoyed a run up in value that I don’t see as sustainable.

    1. kogashiwa Avatar
      kogashiwa

      Anything 60s that wasn’t actually all that special, and has just enjoyed higher values by riding on the coattails of those that were pretty special and soared into the stratosphere.

    2. Wayne Moyer Avatar
      Wayne Moyer

      Out here in Pennsylvania you can pick up a four door Corvair for $5000 still.

      1. Alff Avatar
        Alff

        Wasn’t all that long ago that was all the money for a Corvair drop trop.

  7. Taylor Nelson Avatar
    Taylor Nelson

    Split window-era VW buses. Long overdue for a crash!

    1. P161911 Avatar
      P161911

      I think all German air cooled boxers are due for a crash.

    2. Maymar Avatar
      Maymar

      There’s certain things you just don’t say, no matter the context. You don’t talk about some movie Bombing while you’re on a plane. You probably should say a person at a hospital has left, rather than they’re no longer with us. Anything related to Buses probably shouldn’t be linked to crashing.

      1. Vairship Avatar
        Vairship

        They come with a built-in crash-o-meter!

  8. XRSevin Avatar
    XRSevin

    ’57 Chevys. Fiberglass ’32 Fords. And Hawaiian shirts.

  9. Rust-MyEnemy Avatar

    Values of good Rover 800s have been in the high hundreds for ages now. Surely this can’t go on for ever?

    1. mdharrell Avatar

      No, it can’t, and that’s even without specifying units for the phrase “high hundreds.”

      1. Rust-MyEnemy Avatar

        Money. Hundreds of money.

        1. Sjalabais Avatar
          Sjalabais

          Get the rubles rolling.

          1. Alff Avatar
            Alff

            I’ve got a few thousand Zloty stashed away from a trip to Poland 25 years ago. That would be a trade that should leave both sides without remorse, if not exactly happy.

          2. sporty88 Avatar
            sporty88

            Hundreds? Thousands? Rubles? Zloty? No, we need to fuel a bubble for these. Offer 1 million Zimbabwe dollars. I’m sure everyone can Google the current exchange rate.
            (obligatory embed)
            https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/1/16/Drevil_million_dollars.jpg

    2. nanoop Avatar
      nanoop

      I’ve read the question and intended to joke about the 4000$ high of 944s. First I saw the mention of the 924, and now this post. I am getting slow and blunt.

      1. Rust-MyEnemy Avatar

        Which is arguably a fair description of the Rover 800.

        1. mdharrell Avatar

          Not at all! The use of “getting” imparts entirely the wrong impression of the 800.

        2. nanoop Avatar
          nanoop

          So I am the Rover 800 among commenters…

          1. Rust-MyEnemy Avatar

            A greater honorary title I can’t imagine.

    3. Rover 1 Avatar
      Rover 1

      Where does this phrase ‘high hundreds’ come from?
      Even in NZ$ they are available in ‘low hundreds’.
      And no,I still haven’t picked up my Sterling, but my brother has, I just have to pick it up off him before his wife divorces him for allowing it at their place.( But I now have another W124 for the same price.)

    4. P161911 Avatar
      P161911

      Depends on the scrap steel market.

  10. Tomsk Avatar
    Tomsk

    Anything Shelby, with the likely exception of the original Daytona Coupes.

  11. Sjalabais Avatar
    Sjalabais

    What about homologation models of otherwise ordinary cars? Like this one:

    Rare Homologation Turbo: 1983 Volvo 242 Flathood


    http://13252-presscdn-0-94.pagely.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/drivers-view.jpg
    The more people are moving over from fossile cars to electric cars, the less people care, the less relevant the market for classic cars in general might become (sic!). But who can then justify horrible prices like 14k$ for a 300k miles homologation 240?

    1. engineerd Avatar
      engineerd

      That was my thought. I’d love a ur-Quattro, but I’m not paying more for it just because it’s an “in” car right now.

  12. texpat Avatar
    texpat

    Anything American.
    The crappier Italian cars, like Espadas etc. Low-end Ferraris.
    Anything that was actually really good, like E30’s, 911s, or rarish like the small Fiats
    will continue to rise.

  13. Simon BiTurbo Avatar
    Simon BiTurbo

    None. I’m fairly certain that the reason classic cars’ prices are inflating so much is that they’re starting to be seen as ‘art pieces’.
    When was the last time anyone said ‘art has got way too expensive, the bubble is bound to pop sometime soon and I can get that Rembrandt I’ve always wanted’.
    You’ll still be able to get your prints and copies for cheap, but genuine articles of ‘collector cars’ will likely stay unattainable.

    1. Lokki Avatar
      Lokki

      From your lips to Hemmings ears. I have 1998 328i with 68K miles, leather, sunroof, CD changer and the HK 300 watt stereo. It books out at $5200 right now. I’d like to think that if we just keep it 6 or 7 more years it will make us rich when all the ratty examples have finally been towed away. But somehow I doubt it .

      1. Simon BiTurbo Avatar
        Simon BiTurbo

        Hmmm, yeah I doubt that too. It’s trickier to predict which cars will become really valuable in the years to come (I know my uncle sold an S1 E-Type for a song back in the 80s).
        However, once they’re up there I doubt they’re coming back down again…

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